Eastern Conference Finals
Welcome to the Eastern Conference Finals, if you have followed me from the start of the playoffs you’ve realized that I’ve picked the winner of each series correctly. Well technically only half right because of the number of games I’ve been off on, but the result is the result. The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat have proven to be the teams with more heart and well-coached. Boston is in a familiar place as they are in the East Finals for the third time in four years. This is Miami’s first time in the East Finals since the “Heatles” in 2014. Now What happens when these two teams clash for the right to be in the NBA Finals, lets discuss.
When I look at this series it is truly a tossup for me, both teams were impressive last round with their level of play. Let’s look at the playoff numbers for both teams since numbers don’t lie, well at least they shouldn’t. Offensively the Heat is 5th overall in the playoffs in points scored with 112 which is also good for 3rd in teams remaining in the playoffs. The Celtics overall are 9th with 107.6 points scored per game and 4th in teams remaining. Both teams like to shoot the three-ball, The Celtics shot 34% compared to the Heats 38%. Defensively the Celtics allow 100 points per game which is good for 1st as the Heat allows 103.7 points per game which is also good for 2nd right behind them. Against the three the Celtics hold their opponents to 30.5% which is good for 1st while the Heat hold teams to 34.8% which is good for 5th overall 2ndin teams left. Looking at these statistical categories these teams are clearly closely contested so let’s go a little deeper.
Starting with the Boston Celtics, losing Gordon Hayward was big but they did not seem to falter as Marcus Smart has become a key contributor as the fourth option and at times point guard for this team averaging 15.7 points and five assists on 37.6% from three-point range against the Raptors. Then on the defensive end as their anchor and leader as he takes the heavy defensive assignment every night. Marcus Smart is a rough rider, he got a dog in him and plays with a chip on his shoulder; that is important in this series against the Heat because Jimmy Butler is all of those things and then some. I predict Smart will take on that defensive matchup majority of the time over Jaylen Brown, try to throw Jimmy off his game and make the young players of Miami prove their worth.
When it comes to star power the Celtics on paper have the edge with the trio of Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Jaylen Brown. These options are what gives them that edge because as we’ve seen Kemba Walker struggled at times finding his spots in the Toronto series, but Marcus Smart and Brown picked up the slack. The Heat on paper has Jimmy Butler but Goran Dragic is no slouch as he and Butler are both averaging 20 plus points respectively. On the surface, Jimmy Butler is the type of player that may relish at the thought of being an underdog once again after making quick work of the NBA’s best team record-wise in the Bucks. He is the supreme alpha dog in this matchup even with the scoring prowess of Tatum. When it comes to making big shots or even making the right play, I have Butler over anyone on the Celtics in that department. Butler is in his first-ever Eastern Conference Finals, let’s see how he plays under these lights.
Now let’s talk about the others; the Miami Heat has a collection of players that may pose as big problems that will need to be solved. These problems are rookie Tyler Herro and second-year player Duncan Robinson. Both shoot 40% from the three-point line and also get their shots off of a lot of movement and off-ball screens (mostly Robinson). The Celtics as I stated earlier are the best at guarding the three but how much of a physical toll will chasing these young snipers around have on Boston.
Next, we have Bam Adebayo who has the biggest role to me in this series which is imposing his physical dominance while being a playmaker as the Celtics have no big that can properly match up with him offensively and defensively. This matchup will put Daniel Theis and others in foul trouble and force Brad Stevens to match up with that physical play and possibly put in 2nd-year big man Robert Williams III or possibly go even deeper into his very thin bench. This brings me to Gordon Hayward; it’s disappointing that he hasn’t seen any playoff basketball with the Celtics over the past few years but since his injury in game 1 of round 1 it seems the all-star forward may return to the court. With the addition of Hayward to the mix, the Celtics would be better on both sides of the ball and it negates the discussion of the lack of bench production from them. It is reported that his wife is close to delivering their fourth child which means he may leave the bubble so the Celtics may have to wait a little longer to get fully healthy.
Jayson Tatum is developing into a true scoring threat in this league and it will be on full display this series. Jimmy Butler is looking to prove all the naysayers wrong once again as he has his whole life. This series will go seven games.
My Prediction- Heat in 7
*all stats and analytics by
Espn.com
Nba.com
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