Western Conference Semi Finals
As expected, the wild western conference did not disappoint in excitement and competition as we saw two out of the four first-round series go the full seven games. It’s never been a debate that the west has been the stronger conference over the years but it proved it once again with historic performances from the future stars of the NBA. Future stars such as Luka Doncic pushing the Clippers to six games with two and a half of those games being without costar Kristaps Porzingis. In his first NBA playoff appearance, he averaged 31 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists. It's only his second year in the league.
Then we had the intense seven-game battle between Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell who joined Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, and Allen Iverson as the only players with multiple 50-point games in a playoff run. Last but not least we saw the Thunder lose a wire to wire game 7 against the Houston Rockets who showed that they are not strictly about the offensive side of the ball. With all of these performances, we see the Nuggets vs Clippers matchup as the first series to be set.
(2) Clippers vs (3) Nuggets
In this series expect to see a different Clippers team from what you’ve already witnessed. In the first round, the Clippers' perimeter defense seemed like a non-factor due to the high rate of drives to the basket. As it stands the Clippers are the last ranked team remaining in the playoffs in points allowed with 117. Part of that could be guard Patrick Beverly missing the whole first round of the playoffs. Part of it could also be a lack of repetition together as a unit. I see that number dropping if they enforce their physical dominance on the defensive side of the ball.
About lack of reps, that has been the Clippers’ story this year as they’ve only put out a healthy roster less than 20 games this season when you count the games played in the NBA bubble. “I thought these last few games we kind of figured out for us to be a successful basketball team the things that we need to do on the basketball floor, and we just got back to that,” said Clippers guard Lou Williams, according to the Los Angeles Times. Kawhi Leonard has already figured things out so far these playoffs and has shown us he can carry his team once again while averaging 33 points and 10 rebounds. One person who hasn’t seemed to figure it out completely is Clippers forward Paul George, averaging only 18.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4 assists on 35.8% shooting. Look for him to get his groove back and prove he is the superstar that we all know him to be.
On the Nuggets side, coming off a game seven just two days prior, look to see how rested they are. Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and center Nikola Jokic have proven to be a formidable one-two punch for years to come but I feel the next step for them is being able to control the game together instead of as individuals at a consistent level. They did a good job of that after they went down 3-1 against the Jazz and won three straight. The key for the Nuggets will be the play of guard Gary Harris returning from injury and rookie forward Michael Porter Jr. Can they find their role and excel at it? For Harris it’s getting back to the two-way player who can push the pace, for Porter Jr its can you get timely buckets off the bench with consistency. Bench production will be very key in this series as Denver has the bodies but hasn’t gotten that production. Clippers are second in the playoffs in bench points with 40.5 while the Nuggets are 12th with 25.
My Prediction- Clippers in 6
(1) Lakers vs (4) Rockets
The small ball Rockets come into this series with a new mindset to playing basketball; since the trade of Clint Capela mid-season which allowed them to acquire three and d player Robert Covington. He has proven to be key in their defensive scheme of switching everything while being able to stretch the defense on the other side of the ball. We know the rockets live and die by the three-ball as they shot 128-of-357 from that distance in the first round, the most make and attempts in a playoff series in NBA history.
James Harden by the numbers seems like his usual self-averaging 29.7 points per game but he has shown signs of folding in key crunch time situations. Russell Westbrook has only played two games since recovering from his quad injury and he gave up game six with his turnovers and looked just decent in game 7. Defensively, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Rockets have the best defensive rating in the bubble playoffs, allowing 101.3 points per 100 possession. Yes, I understand basketball is not all about the numbers but the Rockets are giving us their form of defense and it seems to be working, but will it work against the Lakers??
The Lakers present a huge problem for the Rockets for one reason and one reason only, size. The play of the Lakers' big men will dictate how this series will go. Can Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee maximize their time on the floor, or will Anthony Davis have to move to the center position, something that the basketball world knows he isn’t as comfortable at doing? Regardless of what position Davis is playing when he is on the floor, especially against this team, he must enforce his post dominance early and often as the rockets have no one to match up. Anthony Davis is no Steven Adams respectfully, so look for Davis to get the Rockets players in foul trouble and force them to go deep into their bench.
Kuzma is another wildcard as Lakers fans have been looking for consistency from him. He has been somewhat disappointing only scoring double digits two times in five playoff games so far. He will get a lot of shot attempts in this series because of the attention the Lakers duo will attract with their size. That leads me to end with Lebron James, in year 17 we are still expecting dominance because that is what we as NBA fans have been spoiled with. If the Lakers struggle once again from the three-point line look for James to control the game in ways only Lebron James can. Dictating pace, picking out mismatches, and clamping down on defense in key situations of the game. Expect the proverbial “switch” to be flipped as the Lakers look to get back to the basketball they were playing before Covid-19 ravaged the nation.
My Prediction- Lakers in 6
*all stats and analytics by
basketballreference.com
nba.com
espn.com
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